Climate Vulnerability & Challenges Of Hydropower Dependence In A Changing Climate

Neglected Climate Considerations:

Governments and utility companies advocating for new greenfield hydropower projects in southeast Europe often overlook a critical factor — climate change and the escalating vulnerability of the hydropower sector. Despite the impending risks, there is a notable dearth of information on the future susceptibility of hydropower to climate change in this region.

Projections and Vulnerabilities:

Existing studies suggest a significant reduction in water availability over summer months across the Balkans by the century's end. Northern Balkan regions may experience an increase in spring and winter riverine flood risk. A global study indicates substantial decreases in annual discharge in the Western Balkans, exceeding 45 percent in a 4°C world.

Current Production Variability:

Countries highly dependent on hydropower, such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Montenegro, already witness significant production fluctuations. Figure 1 illustrates how hydropower generation, especially in Montenegro, is nearly halved during years with the lowest precipitation compared to those with the highest. This variability complicates energy planning for utilities, leading to uncertainties and potential reliance on costly electricity imports during periods of low precipitation.

Dwindling Resilience Despite Capacity Growth:

Albania's addition of around 600 MW in large plants and several hundred megawatts in smaller plants barely translated to an increase in average hydropower generation from 2010 to 2020. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Montenegro, where smaller hydropower plants were added, generation even declined.

Impact of Climate Events on Energy Crisis:

Several countries faced energy emergencies and crises due to climate-related events. Albania declared an energy emergency in 2021 and halted generation at state-owned hydropower plants in 2022 due to drought. North Macedonia and Serbia experienced historical lows in hydropower reservoirs, exacerbating energy crises and issues with non-renewable sources.

Insufficient Adaptation Measures:

While Albania has started encouraging solar and wind projects to diversify its renewable energy supply, it continues planning new greenfield hydropower plants. Hydropower project promoters generally underestimate climate change threats, evident in outdated environmental impact assessments (EIAs) that rely on pre-1990 data and often omit analyses of climate change impacts, including drought and extreme weather events.

Cumulative Impact Oversight:

There's a lack of cumulative impact assessments, particularly in strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) related to energy plans and programs. The region rarely conducts SEAs, and even when performed, they tend to validate existing plans rather than genuinely assessing impacts. EIAs, mandated to identify cumulative impacts, frequently fall short. They rarely distinguish individual project impacts from combined impacts with other projects in the same river basin, neglecting the competitive demands on diminishing water supplies.

Elevated Risks and Structural Concerns:

The oversight in considering climate impacts heightens the risk of lower-than-expected water supply for hydropower, leading to reduced electricity generation and income. It also increases the vulnerability of downstream areas to structural damage from flooding and property destruction. Addressing these concerns is crucial for the sustainable development of hydropower projects in the context of a changing climate.